Copyright 2017 FRANCIS DIMENNO
BOOK THREE: SAVAGE NOXTOWN
CHAPTER ELEVEN: PART FORTY-FIVE: DAYS OF WRATH
The Count and Cadger Tandy were taking a late summer constitutional one evening, along the wharfs of the Salt River, where the water lapped the shore leaving rings of rime and foam, and where innumerable derelicts lay sprawled in rags amid barrels and bins, many clutching bottles of cheap rotgut. “From the way the slobber over that hooch,” said the Count, “it seems as though they’ve found their ruling passion. S’good. A man ought to figure out at some point in his life exactly what he’s good for, and stick to that. Haww…!
And then the Count grew reflective. “What a world. Drunk for a dime and dead drunk for a dollar. Curious how a man’s financial outlook shrinks and narrows when all he’s concerned about is where the next bottle of kill-devil is coming from. ‘Consider the lilies of the field,’ et cetera, ad nauseum, ad infinitum.
“Yob, there’s an a-number-one reason to have a bit of dosh about you at all times,” said Count Victor Justin to Cadger Tandy. “Not just so you can lap up all the booze you please, and buy a round for the boys on a whim. No; what you really need money for is for simple survival–in case you fall ill. Because a sick man is little better than a helpless animal. There’s no use arguing, or trying to deny it. That’s just the way of nature.
“Naow, I know full well that a robust young buck such as yourself don’t think HE’ll ever be subject to the sickness unto death. But if you would only use your eyes, you would see that most of the world’s work is done by people who are feeling perfectly lousy. Either from some condition or disease or its lingering aftereffects. Cooks in greasy spoons come into work with colds and flus and sometimes typhoid fever and are unusually prone to dosing themselves with whiskey and cocaine. Streetcar conductors nearly all have walking pneumonia at some time or other, and are usually drunk. I’ll wager that a lot of Apothecaries are pale and ghostly white from tuberculosis, and they dose themselves with laudanum for it. All the rum-sodden Jack Tars who pass through Memphis and New Orleans and points south are prone to Yellow Jack and nearly all of them have had it.
I WILL SEND YOU A CHART
THE COMING STOCK MARKET CRASH OF 2017-2018
AUGUST 15, 2017
…It’s hard to conceive of a new and bigger wave of stimulus on top of the already failing ones. There is no new China, no new India, no hoping for Africa to pull profits higher when the low hanging fruit in the U.S. and Europe have been plucked.
In addition, after 9 years of expansion a profit recession is way overdue.
Rogers: I don’t know. It could be an American pension plan that goes broke, and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war — unlikely to be war, but it’s going to be something. When you’re watching Business Insider and you see, “That’s so interesting. I didn’t know that company could go broke.” It goes broke. Send me an email, and then I’ll start watching.
Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?
Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.
Blodget: And we are in a situation where Western civilization already seems to be possibly collapsing, even with the market going up all the time. Often when you do have a financial calamity, you get huge turmoil in the political system. What happens politically if that happens?
Rogers: Well, that’s why I moved to Asia. My children speak Mandarin because of what’s coming.
You’re going to see governments fail. You’re going to see countries fail, this time around. Iceland failed last time. Other countries fail. You’re going to see more of that.
You’re going to see parties disappear. You’re going to see institutions that have been around for a long time — Lehman Brothers had been around over 150 years — gone. Not even a memory for most people. You’re going to see a lot more of that next around, whether it’s museums or hospitals or universities or financial firms.
Tom DiChristopher | @tdichristopher
Published 12:34 PM ET Wed, 31 Dec 2014
CNBC.comIf the future plays out like BNY Mellon’s chief economist expects, 2018 is going to be a year for the history books.
That year, investors will see a number of chickens come home to roost, including wage inflation, a spike in oil prices and an upside inflationary surprise, Richard Hoey told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
The story begins with bonds. Hoey believes the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will be priced in a “G-4 10-year world” marked by competition to own 10-year German bunds, Japanese government bonds, and U.K. gilts. Quantitative easing in Europe and Japan will dry up the supply of high-grade sovereign bonds, resulting in a slow upward drift—rather than a spike—in U.S. long rates.
“I’m worried about 2018. I think by that time everything will all come due. We’ll have wage inflation. The Fed will have to tighten hard,” he said.
At the same time that wage inflation builds up due to easy Federal Reserve monetary policy, the oil price collapse of 2014 will generate supply demand changes that will yield an oil price spike in 2018, he said.
Oil producers are set to slowly cut back investment in new production, and the price will come raging back in three to four years, he projected.
“That’s kind of what we’ve seen over history. When you way overdo it on downside on oil prices, give it a couple years, you’ll way overdo it on upside,” he said.
That’s a problem because most U.S. recessions have been triggered by oil price spikes, Hoey said, noting that oil had reached $145 per barrel in July 2008.
“I’m not worried about 2015. I’m not worried about 2016, not too much about 2017. I think the bill comes due in 2018, but that’s too far in the future to worry about now,” he said.
In Hoey’s view, financial regulation of banks has been so restrictive that it has pooled up excess liquidity that hasn’t flowed into the economy. A few years down the line, as the U.S. government is no longer launching new rounds of financial restriction on the banking system, the excess liquidity will finally get mobilized, he said.
“I expect an upside inflationary surprise around late 2017, 2018,” he said.
HIGHWAY 61 REVISITED
ARE YOU EXPERIENCED?
LED ZEP IV
DARK SIDE OF THE MOON
But what about:
Double Nickels on the Dime?
Odessey & Oracle?
Never Mind the Bollocks?
STATIONS OF THE CRASS
PHIL OCHS’ GREATEST HITS?
THE 25TH AMENDMENT
Gartner’s argument is relatively simple. Add paranoia, sadism and antisocial behavior to narcissistic personality disorder and you have a new diagnosis: “malignant narcissism.” Trump, he says, is no paranoid schizophrenic who walks the streets claiming to be the Son of God – no one “so grossly ill” could be elected. However, the president’s increasing tendency to obsess over persecution theories – and not just parrot meaningless stupidities like the inaugural crowd story but seemingly believe them – shows that he’s crossing a meaningful diagnostic line into psychotic delusions, common among malignant narcissists.